Andrey Litvinov

Forecasts from UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank now converge around a dramatic but increasingly plausible scenario: by 2026, gold will trade between $4,450 and $4,900 per ounce, with realistic pathways toward even higher levels if geopolitical, monetary, or fiscal pressures intensify. What distinguishes this new outlook from previous bullish cycles is the recognition that gold’s rise is not a short-term reaction to volatility but a long-term recalibration of how investors and governments distribute risk in a more fragmented world.

Gold’s violent swings in late 2025 have revived a familiar debate: is the long rally finally losing momentum, or are investors misreading short-term noise as a change in the underlying trend? The answer, increasingly supported by data from the World Gold Council, market behaviour tracked by The Economist, and forecasts from UBS and Bloomberg, is that gold’s long-term foundations remain not only intact but stronger than at any point in the past decade.

China’s abrupt overhaul of value-added tax rules for the gold sector — announced on 1 November 2025 and valid through the end of 2027 — marks one of the most consequential policy shifts the domestic bullion market has seen in a decade.